Bankers intervene to avoid recession

Call it the great compression. Entire financial cycles passed in one day yesterday, as stock markets plunged and rocketed. Complete books were written. JPMorgan's chief executive Jamie Dimon told Fox News yesterday morning that a recession was likely. "I'm taking a calm view, but I think it could get worse if we don't make some progress here," Dimon said, as the bank's economists raised the risk of a recession to 60%. Down the street Goldman Sachs analysts issued their own call. "We think the White House is unlikely to quickly reverse most of the new tariffs, but our probability of recession would decline if it does," Goldman Sachs economists led by Jan Hatzius said Wednesday in a note. Shortly after that the White House announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariff, and Goldman Sachs withdrew the warning. Australian Financial Review called it the "73 minute" recession. No one is certain what caused the pause but when the top bankers in the US are putting recession chances over 50-50, it seems the White House listened.